Sell or Hold at £11.8m?
More than 167,000 FPL managers have sold Bruno Fernandes for Gameweek 8, making him the third most-sold player of the week behind Szoboszlai and Semenyo. He has 33 points at £11.8m, while Mbeumo has 41 at £7.8m. We’d sell Bruno and move to Mbeumo, who plays for the same team, costs £4m less and has the better underlying numbers.
Bruno v Mbeumo: price, form and xGI
Bruno is averaging 4.7 points a game with three goals and an assist in 630 minutes. His form figure is 1.3 and he scored 1 point in GW7. The FPL site’s expected goal involvements (xGI) put him at 4.16, which is a fair return for the shots and chances he’s had, so the problem is less bad luck than price. At £11.8m you need a premium haul most weeks, and he isn’t providing one.
Mbeumo has four goals and an assist in the same 630 minutes, an xGI of 4.86 and form of 6.0. That’s higher than Bruno’s xGI, for £4m less. He scored in the 1-1 draw at Leeds on Sunday 18 October. He’s also owned by 20.2% of managers against Bruno’s 29.4%, and 93,769 managers have brought him in this week.
| Player | Price | Own% | Pts | Form | xGI | In / out this GW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernandes (MUN) | £11.8m | 29.4 | 33 | 1.3 | 4.16 | 5,261 / 167,929 |
| Mbeumo (MUN) | £7.8m | 20.2 | 41 | 6.0 | 4.86 | 93,769 / 16,281 |
| Cunha (MUN) | £7.9m | 6.7 | 37 | 7.0 | 1.77 | 15,276 / 24,012 |
| Cherki (MCI) | £8.0m | 37.6 | 44 | 6.0 | 3.00 | 146,737 / 64,320 |
| Rogers (CHE) | £8.0m | 47.9 | 40 | 5.5 | 3.43 | 111,432 / 23,264 |
Source: Fantasy Premier League, 20 October.
Who to buy instead
Mbeumo is the straight swap, and the £4m saved moves your team in other places. Cunha is the cheaper differential: form of 7.0 against Bruno’s 1.3, three assists and only 6.7% ownership. His xGI of 1.77 says the returns have run ahead of the chances, so he’s the riskier of the two.
If you’d rather leave United altogether, Cherki (44 points, £8.0m) and Rogers (40 points, £8.0m) both have more points than Bruno and cost £3.8m less. Rogers is already in 47.9% of squads, so he won’t give you an edge.
The case for holding is his xGI of 4.16, the highest of the five players in the table bar Mbeumo, which suggests the chances are still coming. If you can’t afford to move him without wrecking your budget, keep him. If you’ve got a free transfer and a tight squad, we’d still make the move. Our GW7 replacement piece covers the wider market.
Man Utd’s fixtures
United are winless in five league games, and Como away in the Champions League comes first, on Wednesday 21 October at 5.45pm UK time. That’s before the GW8 deadline of Friday 23 October at 6.30pm UK time, so check our injury news before Como before you lock anything in. The league game is Bournemouth at home on Sunday 25 October at 2pm UK time.
| GW | Opponent | Date and kick-off (UK) | FDR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bournemouth (H) | Sun 25 Oct, 2pm | 3 |
| 9 | Chelsea (A) | Sat 31 Oct, 12.30pm | 4 |
| 10 | Aston Villa (H) | Sun 8 Nov, 4.30pm | 3 |
| 11 | Liverpool (A) | Sun 22 Nov, 4.30pm | 4 |
| 12 | Brentford (H) | Sat 28 Nov, 3pm | 3 |
Nothing in that run is easy, and two of the five are away at Chelsea and Liverpool. That’s another reason not to pay £11.8m for a player on a form figure of 1.3.
The January report
A separate story is circulating. TEAMtalk reported on 19 October that Turkish outlet Fanatik says Bruno wants to leave in January, with Galatasaray the suitor. TEAMtalk added that the club’s hierarchy are determined to keep him and that there’s “no suggestion” United are considering selling. It’s a report from a single source, so we wouldn’t base an FPL move on it. We’ve covered his contract situation separately, and our GW8 transfers piece covers where the rest of the market is heading.
The GW8 deadline is Friday 23 October at 6.30pm UK time.
Featured photo: Bryan Berlin, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped).
Arjun Rao is a football writer covering the Premier League for The False 9 — tactical breakdowns, transfer analysis and the numbers behind the game.
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